According to the data, in 2016, China's glass market was about 83 billion yuan. In 2017, China's glass market reached 95.1 billion yuan. It is estimated that by 2018, China's market scale will exceed 110 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%.
The glass manufacturing industry is a pure midstream processing manufacturing industry. The analysis of the glass market pointed out that due to the high homogeneity of the original glass, the profit of the enterprise depends on the difference between the processing cost and the marginal cost of the industry. The fuel cost is the core variable that causes the relative profit between enterprises.
Analysis of the scale of the glass market, the growth rate of China's glass industry revenue in 2017 was 17.61% (16.3% in the same period), and the net profit growth of the mother was 17.04% (166.15% in the same period). Both growth rates were both year-on-year. The decline was mainly due to the low base of 2016H1. Overall, the revenue of the glass industry continued to grow steadily in 2018, and the net profit of the mother returned.
The total production capacity of flat glass is 1.3 billion weight boxes, among which there are more than 90 float glass production enterprises and 325 float production lines. Since the 12th Five-Year Plan, 107 new ones have been added, with an average annual increase of 21 and float glass production capacity of 1.187 billion. box.
The cumulative average size of single-line float glass is 612t/d, which is 91t/d higher than that of 2016. The large-scale float glass production line of 900-1300t/d has been successfully built by domestic technology. The proportion of float glass to flat glass is 88%, which is 4% higher than that of 2016. The proportion of high-quality float method to float glass is 31.5%, which is 12% higher than that of 2010.
China's glass market is expected to exceed 110 billion yuan this year.
Ultra-white rolled glass has 76 furnaces and 169 ultra-white rolled glass production lines, with a total scale of 22,850t/d, ranking first in the world. The production concentration of solar calendered glass enterprises is at a relatively high level. China's top five solar ultra-white rolled glass manufacturing enterprises account for 57.6% of the national solar ultra-white rolled glass market.
From the perspective of downstream demand, real estate is the main application area of flat glass, accounting for about 75% of the total demand, mainly used in decorative products such as doors and windows, curtain walls, furniture, etc., followed by the automotive sector and exports, accounting for about 10% and 5 respectively. %about. Since glass is highly correlated with the real estate industry, glass sales and real estate are in a cycle.
In terms of profitability, the supply contraction at the end of 2017 continued the industry boom cycle. Under the environmentally-friendly situation, the industry glass-soda price gap recovered to near the stage high level in 2013. Comparing the cumulative capacity of cold repair and resumption of production from 2012 to the present, the capacity of the industry that has not resumed production under the continuation of the industry boom may still be cold-set and put into production; considering the continuity in the glass production process, the production line of potential resumption of production will undoubtedly be put into production. Industry supply is an unfavorable factor.
Analysis of the size of the glass market, the gross profit margin of the glass industry in the first half of 2018 was 25.93%, an increase of 2.85pct over the same period of the previous year. It has been in an upward trend since 2017. In the quarterly view, the gross profit margin of 17Q2 increased by 2.87pct, down 2.17. Pct (soda ash price increase has a certain lag), but still at a high level; the expense rate during the 17Q2 period is basically the same as last year; 17H1 net interest rate is about 6.83%, the same rise is 2.93pct, 17Q2 net interest rate is up 3.90pct; the first half of the enterprise cash The ability has increased, and the net cash flow/operating income generated from operating activities is approximately 11.58%, a significant increase from 5.17% in the same period last year.
With the launch of the 12th Five-Year Plan of the Civil Aviation Administration of China, China will build 56 new airports and renovate and build 16 airports, which will bring new growth opportunities to the domestic glass industry. China's continued development of industry, housing and infrastructure will greatly increase the demand for glass.
In summary, glass is one of the important basic raw material industries supporting China's national economic development. Under the influence of strong economic growth and the elimination of barriers to investment in the external market, the new production capacity of glass will gradually increase, and the industry cycle will continue to lengthen. It is expected that the glass price is expected to maintain a high operating pattern by 2019, and further price increases are expected.